变分自编码器结合聚类算法在空战态势评估问题上的应用

针对传统态势评估方法确定权值的主观性强、处理大数据能力弱、特征提取能力不足等问题，提出基于改进变分自编码器和聚类算法的无监督空战态势评估方法。根据态势变化连续性特点，提出基于时间段的空战态势分类方法，将敌我双方态势划分为四类。在变分自编码器的基础上，提出了VAE-WRBM-MDN特征提取模型，即使用混合密度网络优化变分自编码器的特征提取能力和生成数据的相似度，使用权值不确定限制玻尔兹曼机优化网络的初始权值。将提取的特征分别输入到两种典型的聚类算法中进行聚类，并结合态势函数和实际战场情况修正聚类结果，形成正确的态势分类标准。在实验部分，分别进行了最优参数调整、关键特征提取、聚类以及修正实验。实验结果表明，模型态势分类正确率和运行时间均满足应用需求，实例评估结果与客观态势一致性强，所提方法具有实际应用价值。     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

基于Monte-Carlo方法的火炮瞄准校验系统精度评定

基于双经纬仪的火炮瞄准校验系统需要给出其校验精度,但传统的测量不确定度传递公式需要大量微分运算,校验精度计算很复杂,为此,提出了基于Monte-Carlo方法的火炮瞄准校验系统测量不确定度的评定。以调炮精度校验为例分析了校验系统的原理,结合调炮精度校验过程设计了基于Monte-Carlo方法的测量不确定度评定过程,分析比较了计算量的大小,并将评定结果与传统评定方法的结果进行比较。结果表明:二者一致性良好,Monte-Carlo方法能够完成对瞄准校验系统各校验项目的校验精度评定,并且简化了计算,节省了时间。     

MABAC method for multiple attribute group decision making under q-rung orthopair fuzzy environment

As the generalization of intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and Pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS), the q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (q-ROFS) has emerged as a more meaningful and effective tool to solve multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems in management and scientific domains. The MABAC (multi-attributive border approximation area comparison) model, which handles the complex and uncertain decision making issues by computing the distance between each alternative and the bored approximation area (BAA), has been investigated by an increasing number of researchers more recent years. In our article, consider the conventional MABAC model and some fundamental theories of q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (q-ROFS), we shall introduce the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model to solve MADM problems. at first, we briefly review some basic theories related to q-ROFS and conventional MABAC model. Furthermore, the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model is built and the decision making steps are described. In the end, An actual MADM application has been given to testify this new model and some comparisons between this novel MABAC model and two q-ROFNs aggregation operators are provided to further demonstrate the merits of the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model.     

基于改进蚁群算法的战时不确定性路径规划模型求解

战时路径规划的不确定性包括参数、约束条件和决策目标等的不确定性。以基本蚁群算法为基础，结合随机模拟和模糊模拟技术，提出了一种改进蚁群算法来求解战时不确定性路径规划问题，并通过仿真示例与其他算法进行了比较。结果表明：该算法求解效率更高，求解过程更为直观，能够满足战时不确定性路径规划问题的研究。     

Scheduling a maintenance activity on parallel identical machines

We study a problem of scheduling a maintenance activity on parallel identical machines, under the assumption that all the machines must be maintained simultaneously. One example for this setting is a situation where the entire system must be stopped for maintenance because of a required electricity shut‐down. The objective is minimum flow‐time. The problem is shown to be NP‐hard, and moreover impossible to approximate unless P = NP. We introduce a pseudo‐polynomial dynamic programming algorithm, and show how to convert it into a bicriteria FPTAS for this problem. We also present an efficient heuristic and a lower bound. Our numerical tests indicate that the heuristic provides in most cases very close‐to‐optimal schedules. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

法律不确定性之研究

法律的不确定性是法律固有的性质，从法律确定性和不确定性之间的关系、法律不确定性产生的原因以及法律的不确定性与法治之间关系三个方面来阐述法律的不确定性，并评价其对于社会主义法治建设的意义。     

Governing risks in international security

Risks are omnipresent in contemporary international security. Despite a long tradition in security studies going at least back to Von Clausewitz, we consider that the topic of risk remains under-examined. This forum seeks to advance the research agenda on risk in security studies by showcasing work of scholars using advanced concepts of risk, based on insights from sociology, biology, psychology, and safety studies, to better understand the role of risk in international security. As a way of introduction, this short article sets out the main debates.     

基于偏最小二乘特征提取的支持向量机回归算法

为了提高SVM的建模质量,简化建模难度,提出了PLS-SVM组合回归建模方法.该方法通过PLS对样本数据进行降维、去噪以及消除共线性处理后,再进行SVM回归建模.不仅保持了SVM良好的模型性能,而且使SVM具备特征提取功能.实验结果表明,该方法是可行的,采用此法构建的SVM模型,泛化性能优于没有特征提取的SVM.     

物元贝叶斯网络模型研究

分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价.